Spreadwire watches prediction markets around the clock. Each number is the market’s live implied probability of the outcome. When odds move sharply — or platforms disagree — an AI investigates the news and explains why in the timeline below.
Why prediction markets?
They are the only source that is real-time, quantified, and backed by money. A poll is a weeks-old snapshot of opinions; a market price is a live probability. When news breaks, markets move in minutes — polls take days.
Can markets be trusted?
Liquid markets have matched or beaten polls in recent US and UK elections. But they are probabilities, not certainties — a 30% candidate is supposed to win 3 times out of 10. And thin markets can be moved by a single large bet: that is exactly what Spreadwire detects and explains.
What do the colored dots on the chart mean?
Each dot is an AI-narrated event at that exact moment: red = major move, amber = notable, green = minor. Scroll to the timeline to read the explanation.
Where does the data come from?
Live prices from Polymarket’s public API. Explanations are AI-generated from public news sources (GDELT, press RSS) and always cite their source. Not investment advice.